Election Day, Part II. Happy Angstgiving.

Good evening.

What we have here is an experiment. Substack is not really designed for this sort of real-time give and take. They offer a more conventional chat tool, but I don’t love it, so I want to give it a shot in this format, which is familiar to us all. We’ll see how it goes.

I hope you were able to read this morning’s Gene Pool post on the pigeon paradigm.

I am imagining much of the action tonight — I will try to stay with you as long as I can stay awake — will be happening in the Comments. I’ll be lurking there, and reacting. I will also privately take questions and observations in the ordinary space for Questions and Observations; I’ll respond to them, too, probably up here. So:

And / or

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Let’s begin with an intriguing claim. There may be a valuable early bellwether to tell us how this evening — and possibly the next few days — are going to play out.

This moved earlier today on Twitter:

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So, that is interesting. A few minutes later, I got this post from reader Sean Clinchy:

“I’m working at the polls in Charlottesville in a precinct that is mostly UVA students. We’ve been mobbed since the polls opened at 6:00 AM (it’s just after 2:00 as I write this).  Long lines, with no letup. I’m hoping that this is indicative of what’s going on around the country. If it is, Harris is going to win in a landslide.”

It’s not definitive of anything — but maybe it’s encouraging? Charlottesville is an island of blue in the middle of a vast red(neck) lake.

I remember watching election night in 2016 and it took forever before Virginia was called for Clinton. And we Knew.

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By the way, just in case there was ever any doubt about who you all are, and how committed you are, here are the final figures on Saturday’s poll about who contributed what to which presidential campaign:  

Number of people who gave money to Harris:  404

Number of people who gave money to neither candidate: 243

Number of people who gave money to Trump:  Zero. 

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Q: Since every election  is “the most important in our lifetimes,” which was the “least important?” Clinton/Dole?

A: I don’t think so, because Clinton appointed Ruth Bader Ginsberg and Stephen Breyer; Dole would have listed to the right, and he had the legislative clout to pull them through. I’d say Eisenhower-Stevenson, if your lifetime goes back that far.   Ford-Carter.   George H.W.- Dukakis.  

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Q: IMHO the role of popular culture is vastly understated as far as American voting patterns are concerned. Aaron Sorkin prepared the American public for Barack Obama by writing the Latino President played by Jimmy Smits (and actually based on pre-presidential Obama). After West Wing, the next political series was House of Cards in which every one, including Democrats was corrupt as hell. And so we get Trump. Now, what was the most popular movie of this year? Barbie, which features an eminently sensible Black female president. If Kamala wins, Greta Gerwig deserves to be nominated for an Oscar all over again. Discuss. (Also, I’m an Emotional Support Canadian. )  – Banuta Rubess

A: I like the way you think.

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Q: When did you vote for president and how?

A: By “how” I am sure you mean “by what method?” rather than “Whom did you vote for?”  Because that would be an un-American question; I’m sorry, but my choice for president will have to remain a mystery. 

I voted on Saturday, in person.  My precinct in D.C. is three blocks from my home, and opened for business a week before today.    

By the way, I was told – I did not confirm this – that my precinct is the most Democratic in the city, and the city is the most Democratic in the country.  Meaning my vote may have been the least significant anywhere.

I will reveal that I voted for Brett Astmann. Also, he was running unopposed.

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Sigh. And now this: Election officials in DeKalb County, Ga., a deep-blue county east of Atlanta, say they have received bomb threats at seven locations within the last hour, including five voting precincts. Police have evacuated the polling sites, which include churches and community centers in Lithonia, Decatur, Chamblee and Tucker — all deeply diverse communities. Some of the locations appear to include Black churches.

“Every asset we have will be deployed to ensure that every citizen will have an opportunity to cast their ballot despite these bomb threats,” DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond said in a statement.

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Okay, let’s get to work in real time. Comments / Questions.

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Q: Your observations on pigeons has me thinking about my chickens (I have over two dozen).  Chickens have personalities.  But it seems the one factor that really differentiates one from another is fear.  I think they are all very inquisitive, curious creatures, but much of this is inhibited by fear.  The more interesting fun birds are the ones less overwhelmed by it.  They are the first to try a new food, wander away from the flock to explore, and don’t startle so much when being picked up.  They are less bound by herd (flock) behavior.    It’s as if when that one reflex is dialed down, the others are allowed to emerge.

- Sam Mertens

A: Okay, this is apropos of nothing but I played three games against this guy back when I was a kid.  Lost every time.

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Q: We have bomb threats from Russian agents at polling locations. We have 10 hour waits with judges denying petitions for extended hours. We have Pennsylvania counties that didn't send out requested vote-by-mail ballots until November 2nd. We have election officers illegally asking brown voters to show proof of citizenship. And of course we have vigilantes trolling polling places and intimidating voters with displays of weapons. With all of this going on, it's crazy to me that so many people wait until election day.

A: A very good point.

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Q: A certain couple of old friends, with whom we've long been exchanging heartfelt promises to get together on the First Good Day, have up-and-out-of-the-blue asked us to watch election returns at their place. We all (largely) share political perspectives, and my wife is thrilled and eager to accept. My reaction, on the other hand, is akin to having been invited to come over and relieve myself on their TV. I mean, this is one night I need command of my own channel changer. I don't even know if they prefer Steve Kornacki or the other guy, let alone whether they'll toggle between them with the timing and inventiveness I'll require. More importantly, depending on how the evening unfolds, I may at some point actually lose control of various bodily functions. I can guarantee at least one episode of copralalia. At any rate, I've issued a raincheck because I won't be fit company for, you know, company. So, I ask: AITA? I should add, I don't feel any compunction about your live-stream; the only thing that may prevent me from participating in that is my lack of technical skill. /s/ Frank Osen

Q: I would never go to a party tonight.  In times of stress I want to be largely alone – kind of a harkback to my childhood shyness.   

I do remember this excellent 2016 SNL skit.  

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Q: I live in NY and don't watch TV (I only stream these days) so didn't see much in the way of political advertising. But what I did see makes me think that the Dems really dropped the ball on messaging regarding the economy. I didn't see them really talk about it (not that I think the president can do much good to the economy, although they can do much bad; witness Trump's bragging about tariffs). I did however, see one brief interview with Elizabeth Warren, where the interviewer asked her how she though Harris would deal with the economy. Her answer was to shift the question to abortion rights. Have I missed something? Has there been better messaging on the left?

A: I think this has been a deliberate decision by the Dems, and I have never understood it. But by and large, I think the Harris campaign has performed splendidly.

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REMINDER: You probably want to choose “Newest first”option atop the Comments.

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Q: Re chicken who plays tic-tac-toe: did you read Calvin Trillin’s essay about him?

A: I did. Splendid.

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Q: Virginia’s electoral map of votes for President shows very little difference between 2012, 2016, and 2020. The most urban areas (next to D.C., plus the Richmond/Norfolk area) are blue, the rest is mostly rural and red. In that sea of red are a number of blue dots which almost all are university locations. Do tell. Connie Akers, Radford, VA (Blue dot. Hard to see. Squint.)

A: Yep, just this second CNN said Virginia is closer than expected. Not a good sign.

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Q: The right one won in 2020…Trump’s petulant objections to the contrary notwithstanding…and today we are, IMHO, closer to all dying in a nuclear conflagration than at any time during my 75 years. There are madmen out there with nihilistic glory dreams. Does anybody see in the fair Kamala, as handled a politician who ever ran for President, the steel and fierce grit, to stare down these madmen and have them step away from the precipice of worldwide oblivion? We all might soon suffer very late term.abortions because of today’s vote ( which I’m confident she’s going to win). The ultimate global warming.

Trump may be a turd prick, but he is , to his black soul, a transactional motherfucker. I don’t think he’s willing to trade Boston for Kyiv, or Latvia for Milwaukee or Taiwan for the West Coast. Guess what? Neither am I.

A: Let me get this straight.   As I read this, you think TRUMP would be more level-headed than Harris in a nuclear standoff?   Because I think that is actually what you are saying.   I admit, as the yoots say, I am SMH.

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Q: Here’s another good cartoon: 

https://explosm.net/comics/2024-election

A: Simple, but effective.

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Q: What is in the water in these Trump states? I am prepared for the gloating to end in early January when the dictator-elect starts getting even with everyone he perceived as an enemy to him personally and starts just handing over the country to his rich cronies. I have never been so afraid for democracy as I am at this moment.

A: I’m getting no strong feeling about who wins. A lot of cities have not reported in yet. I am still cautiously optimistic. Either that, or stupid.

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Q: It's obvious that there was a deliberate decision not to talk about the economy. This is the 2nd straight Democratic-incumbent presidential election in which A) the economy was objectively doing well, and B) the Democrat candidate refused to say it out loud, preferring to focus messaging instead around those "left behind." They have learned nothing from Spray-on Don, who, while presiding over the greatest GDP collapse since the Great Depression, kept declaring it "the greatest economy in the history of the world" to the point where even Democrats believed him. I've said before that for all of Clinton's failures as a candidate, this was her biggest sin, and the lesson was not learned. James Carville was right, and when he said "it's the economy, stupid," he didn't mean the incumbent party should act like the economy needs fixing. I pray it's won't matter. Scott A.

A: When this is over, we need to hear why they made this choice. It is possible there was a strategic reason, but I can’t imagine what it is.

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Q: I’m 47. All I can tbink is that at least I’m on the back end of middle age so my years living in a post-democratic fascist regime are shorter now.

A: Hey, by THAT metric, I’m in fat city.

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Q: I was fairly confident, but that seems to have completely evaporated now that, you know, results have actually started coming in. Didn't expect to win Florida, but I'd hoped it wouldn't be called so fast And sure would be happy if Harris were even up in a state it was important to win quickly, like Virginia. However. Early results in Kansas and Nebraska? Do you think these are possibly significant? Help!

A: I think the late-arriving votes are largely coming from big cities.

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Q: Don Weingarten here. Boy, I don't like what I am starting to see. In elections up to this point, I have seen an early lead taken by Republicans and a later Democratic catch-up, which makes sense, because cities take longer to count than redneck - I mean rural - counties. But these are STATES being called. Makes me very nervous.

A: So far, there have been no surprises, state by state.

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Okay, it’s 9:35. Just for the historical record, what is your prediction as of right now? You must choose. Gene Pool Gene Poll:

Wow, 50-50. Exactly!

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Okay, I am crashing and no longer cautiously optimistic. I am just drowning in caution. Heading to sleep. MAYBE THINGS WILL LOOK BETTER IN THE MORNING.

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Update, 4 a.m.

They didn’t.

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Pat and I need to be funny tomorrow, for The Invitational, Thursday. This will be a challenge.